Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants (4:15pm)

Just like we saw in the Braves/Phillies game last night, there’s another matchup tonight that’s being heavily overhyped — this time, it’s the Orioles vs. Giants. Over 90% of the public is hammering the Over after a recent slugfest between these two teams that saw 20+ total runs. But chasing that kind of result can be dangerous.

Saturday’s game is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel. The Giants are expected to go with a bullpen game, and their relievers have quietly been solid — a 3.99 ERA in August and 3.91 at home. They also boast the sixth-best team ERA in the league. On the other side, Baltimore’s offense has gone cold, hitting just .219 this month and .232 against National League opponents. Trevor Rogers will take the mound for the Orioles and he’s been outstanding — posting a 1.89 ERA on the road and a 1.40 ERA overall.

The San Francisco Giants have only hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 116 games (-18.60 Units / -15% ROI) This one has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Fade the public and take the under on Saturday night. I have this game handicapped at 7 runs combined.

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Pick: Under 8 (-105)