Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies (3:45pm)

This matchup is drawing heavy betting action, making it one of the most wagered games on the board. Over 80% of the public is backing both the Phillies and the Over tonight. That kind of lopsided action presents a prime opportunity to fade the public, particularly on the total. I believe both the side and total have been inflated in reaction to last night’s high-scoring affair. I’m anticipating a much tighter game with limited run production.

Ranger Suárez (10-6, 3.07 ERA) has rebounded impressively after a couple of rough outings earlier this month. In his last two starts, the lefty has allowed just two runs across 13 2/3 innings while striking out 21 without issuing a single walk. He’s also dominated the Braves this season, surrendering only one run over 13 innings in two starts — both of which he won.

On the other side, Bryce Elder (5-9, 6.12 ERA) is trending upward. He’s won three straight starts and is coming off a solid outing against the Mets, where he allowed just two runs on three hits over six innings. While Philadelphia has given him trouble in the past, this could be the spot where he turns the tide and secures his first win against the Phillies.

Unlike last night’s shootout, I expect this to be a low-scoring, closely contested game. My projections have the total closer to 7.5 runs, suggesting strong value on the Under. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies have hit the Over in only 55 of their last 132 games — a trend that’s yielded -20.65 units and a -14% ROI.

(2x-Rated Members Only)

Pick: Under 9 +100