Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina (4:00pm)

Why Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Will Stay Under the Total

Tonight's Sun Belt Conference matchup between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (visiting) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers has a posted total around 153.5–154.5 across major sportsbooks. While Arkansas State enters as a small road favorite (-3 to -3.5), the over/under line feels inflated given the stylistic clash and efficiency profiles of both teams. Here's a breakdown of why this game has strong potential to stay under the total.

Coastal Carolina's Brutal Offensive Efficiency

The biggest reason to lean under is Coastal Carolina's offense which is one of the weakest in Division I basketball. According to KenPom ratings, the Chanticleers rank 279th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (103.6 points per 100 possessions). That's bottom-30 territory, meaning they struggle to generate quality shots and convert against even average defenses. Arkansas State isn't an elite defensive unit (225th in adjusted defensive efficiency), but they're more than capable of containing an offense this limited. Coastal has been held under 70 points in multiple recent games, and forcing them into a half-court grind will keep their scoring capped in the mid-60s or lower.

Extremely Slow Tempo Driven by the Home Team

Coastal Carolina plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 282nd in adjusted tempo. Fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities to score for both sides. When the home team dictates a deliberate, stubborn style, totals tend to deflate. Arkansas State isn't a runaway transition team either (192nd in tempo), so they're unlikely to push the pace significantly on the road. Expect a game with limited fast breaks and plenty of clock management, resulting in combined possessions well below the national average.

Defensive Profiles That Complement a Low-Scoring Affair

• Coastal's defense ranks a respectable 165th nationally (109.6 points allowed per 100 possessions)—good enough to disrupt Arkansas State's solid-but-not-explosive offense (146th, 110.6 Adj).

• Road teams often struggle to find rhythm offensively, and Arkansas State will face a motivated Coastal squad playing at home after a recent surge.

  
  

Both teams lack elite shooting or high-volume scoring threats that could suddenly erupt. This isn't a matchup built for explosive outbursts. Sun Belt games often trend toward lower scoring, especially when one team (Coastal) ranks outside the top 250 overall. These aren't high-major offenses trading buckets but rather gritty, mid-major battles where missed shots, turnovers, and physical defense dominate. The combination of poor offensive execution from Coastal and a deliberate pace sets up perfectly for a low scoring game.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 153 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

ExclusiveVipSports