Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros (5:10pm)

I like the Under 9 tonight in Houston, with several indicators pointing toward a lower-scoring game than the starting pitchers’ season-long ERAs might suggest.

Merrill Kelly is coming off his best start of the season. The veteran right-hander threw 7 scoreless innings against San Francisco, allowing only two singles while striking out seven. He generated 13 swings and misses on 100 pitches, including six with his changeup, giving him some encouraging momentum entering this game.

Houston’s offense also hasn’t consistently been producing big innings. The Astros scored only 10 runs over their four-game series against the White Sox, and even during Thursday’s 6-2 victory, several of their primary hitters were relatively quiet. That gives Kelly a path toward limiting Houston to just three or four runs.

The Arizona offense is another major reason I lean Under. The Diamondbacks struggled badly with runners in scoring position during their previous series against Philadelphia, going 0-for-17 with RISP while getting limited production from several of their better hitters. Their most recent win was a 1-0 game, continuing the recent trend of Arizona having difficulty turning baserunners into runs.

Cristian Javier is the obvious risk, given his 6.45 ERA, but there are signs that his overall season numbers make his current form look worse than it has been. Javier owns a 4.60 ERA over his last seven appearances, compared with a 9.98 ERA across the previous six, and he struck out eight hitters in only four innings in his most recent outing.

Houston also has the bullpen structure to shorten Javier’s night if necessary. The Astros’ primary relief group posted a tremendous 1.06 ERA over 59⅓ innings during August, and their top arms have recently received some needed rest. AJ Blubaugh has been especially effective, posting a 2.22 ERA over his last 48 appearances while allowing just one earned run across his previous 18 innings Arizona’s bullpen is in excellent form as well. The D-backs recently used seven relievers to combine for a three-hit shutout of Philadelphia, and the relief corps features multiple arms carrying ERAs below 3.00.

The key with Under 9 is that we don’t need dominant performances from both starters. Kelly continuing his recent improvement, Javier giving Houston four or five competitive innings, and both bullpens limiting late damage should be enough.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 9 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

ExclusiveVipSports