Here is my pick for the Nationals vs White Sox game! At first glance, betting the Over might seem like a straightforward choice, but often when things appear too clear-cut, they tend to backfire. Despite initial impressions, I believe this matchup favors the Under. Both pitchers are in stellar form, particularly Patrick Corbin, who has clinched three consecutive underdog victories. The White Sox, facing a left-handed pitcher like Corbin, are likely to encounter difficulties given their low batting average of .192 against southpaws this season. Moreover, their offensive struggles are evident, ranking last in the majors with an average of only 2.90 runs per game.
On the other side, Garrett Crochet, set to pitch for the White Sox, presents an intriguing challenge for the Nationals as they face him for the first time. Crochet is on a streak of two consecutive wins, having triumphed against opponents like the Cardinals and the Guardians in his recent starts. Impressively, he has heldthose opponents to just one run and eight hits while striking out 17 batters.
Despite the majority of bets and money favoring the Over according to SportsInsights, the total dropped by half a run from the opening line. The heavy juice on the Under suggests that seasoned bettors, the sharps, have taken a strong position in favor of the Under. Furthermore, recent trends indicate that both the Nationals and the White Sox have consistently fallen short of the posted total in their respective games. The Nationals have only surpassed the total in 13 of their last 37 games, resulting in a significant negative return on investment, while the White Sox have exceeded the total in just 6 of their last 16 games, also yielding a negative ROI. Given these factors, I assess this game to have a maximum projected total of 5-6 runs.
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Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
🍀Best of luck!
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