Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills (1:25pm)

Why the Philadelphia Eagles Will Beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 17

In a highly anticipated Week 17 clash on December 28, 2025, at Highmark Stadium, the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) face the Buffalo Bills (11-4) in what many are calling a potential Super Bowl preview. Despite the Bills being favored by around 3 points and playing at home, the Eagles have multiple edges that position them for an upset victory. Here's a breakdown of the key reasons Philadelphia will come out on top.

Exploiting Buffalo's Porous Run Defense

The Bills rank near the bottom of the NFL in run defense, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game (30th) and 5.4 yards per carry (second-worst). They've surrendered 24 rushing touchdowns this season, the second-most in team history. In contrast, the Eagles' ground game has surged recently, averaging over 170 yards in recent outings behind Saquon Barkley, who has eclipsed 1,000 yards and remains a dual-threat with receptions. With forecasted cold rain in Orchard Park, this game screams "ground-and-pound." The Eagles can control the clock, limit possessions for Josh Allen, and wear down a depleted Bills front missing key players like DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips. Barkley and Jalen Hurts' designed runs will feast on this vulnerability, keeping the score low and the Eagles in command.

Defensive Reinforcements and Scheme to Contain Josh Allen

The Eagles welcome back star defensive tackle Jalen Carter after a multi-game absence, bolstering a front that has improved against the run lately. Coordinator Vic Fangio's schemes have historically troubled mobile quarterbacks, and Philadelphia's secondary (led by young standouts like Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) can match up against Buffalo's receiving corps, which lacks elite separation outside of Khalil Shakir. While James Cook leads the NFL in rushing (1,532 yards), the Eagles rank 21st in rushing yards allowed but have shown resilience in limiting explosive plays when healthy. Forcing Allen to pass more in adverse weather plays into Philly's hands—Allen's foot issue lingers, and the Bills are without tight end Dalton Kincaid and other contributors.

Recent Head-to-Head Dominance and Momentum

Philadelphia has won the last three meetings against Buffalo, including a thrilling 37-34 overtime victory in 2023 where Hurts engineered a comeback. The Eagles own the series edge in recent years (5 of the last 6) and have proven they can win high-stakes games against Allen-led teams. After a mid-season skid, the Eagles have won two straight convincingly, clinching the NFC East. Hurts is playing efficient football (24 TDs this year), and weapons like A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert provide matchup nightmares. Motivation isn't an issue— a road win here sends a statement heading into the playoffs.

Weather and Intangibles Favor a Smashmouth Eagles Style

Rainy, windy conditions (around 35-40°F) neutralize deep passing attacks, favoring the Eagles' tush-push and power run game. Buffalo thrives in high-scoring affairs at home, but Philly's physicality and time-of-possession dominance (bolstered by a resurgent O-line despite Lane Johnson's absence) will frustrate the Bills crowd. Injuries hit Buffalo harder on defense, while the Eagles are relatively healthy outside of Nakobe Dean. Special teams could tilt it too—Jake Elliott's leg in wet conditions versus Buffalo's kicker woes.

Prediction: Eagles 23, Bills 20

Philadelphia grinds out a hard-fought road win, covering as underdogs and proving they're built for January. Fly Eagles Fly!

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Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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