Philadelphia 76'ers vs Memphis Grizzlies (5:10pm)

Why the 76ers vs. Grizzlies Game Will Stay Under 234 Points

The Philadelphia 76ers (16-14) face the Memphis Grizzlies (15-17) on December 30, 2025, at FedExForum, with the betting total hovering around 233.5-234 points. While both teams feature explosive scorers like Tyrese Maxey and Ja Morant, several factors point strongly toward a lower-scoring affair that stays under the total. Below are some reasons why I favor the Under in this matchup between these two teams.

Strong Under Trends for Both Teams

Memphis has been one of the league's most reliable under teams this season. In 32 games, Grizzlies contests have gone under the total 20 times (62.5%), including a heavy lean toward the under recently. Advanced models, such as the SportsLine Projection Model (which has simulated this matchup 10,000 times), strongly favor the under, citing Memphis' consistent trend of low-scoring outputs. Philadelphia's games have hit the over just 15 times in 30 opportunities (50% over rate), and the combined average point totals for these teams' games are below the league norm. The projected combined scoring from multiple sources (e.g., around 231 points) falls short of the 234 line.

Defensive Strengths and Slow Pace

The Grizzlies rank 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 111.3 points per 100 possessions, while the 76ers sit around mid-pack defensively (14th in points allowed at 115.6 PPG). Memphis excels at rim protection with Jaren Jackson Jr., who anchors the paint and limits easy buckets.Both teams play at a below-average pace:

• Memphis ranks 25th in offensive possessions per game.

• Philadelphia is not a fast-break heavy team.

• This slower tempo reduces possessions and scoring opportunities, especially in a cross-conference matchup where styles may clash rather than flow.

  
  

Injuries Depleting Offensive Firepower

Both squads are severely banged up, which directly impacts scoring potential: Joel Embiid is questionable (right ankle sprain/knee management) after missing recent games; Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee) and Trendon Watford (adductor) are out. Without Embiid's dominance in the paint, Philly's offense leans heavily on Maxey (30.7 PPG), but the supporting cast struggles to generate consistent points. Grizzlies have a lengthy injury list includes Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (hamstring), Brandon Clarke (calf), Ty Jerome (calf), Zach Edey (ankle), John Konchar (thumb), and others. Memphis has battled injuries all season, forcing reliance on Jackson Jr. (18.5 PPG) and Morant, but depth is thin.

These absences lead to inefficient offenses and more missed shots, turnovers, and grinding possessions.

Recent Form Supports Lower Scoring

The 76ers are on a three-game losing streak, including a 129-104 blowout loss to OKC where their offense faltered in the second half. Memphis' games have trended low, with recent outputs like 125-104 (win vs. Bucks) and 112-116 (loss vs. Wizards) still reflecting defensive battles despite occasional bursts.

Head-to-head history and stylistic matchups (physical defense vs. injury-limited offenses) further suggest a gritty, low-possession game.

Final Thoughts: With elite defenses (especially Memphis), slow paces, significant injuries sapping offensive depth, and proven under trends, this game has all the makings of a defensive slog. Expect a final score in the 110-115 range per team, comfortably under 234 points. The under is the sharp play here.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 234 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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