New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs (4:00pm)

Defense will be a strong point of emphasis for both teams tonight!

The New York Knicks (23-9) visit the San Antonio Spurs (23-9) in a highly anticipated New Year's Eve rematch of the NBA Cup Final, where the Knicks won 124-113 (Total: 237 points, hitting the over on a 233-line). Betting lines today have the Over/Under hovering around 234-234.5, reflecting both teams' strong offenses. However, several key stats and trends point to a lower-scoring affair that stays under 234 points this time around.

Elite Defenses Clashing in a Potential Grind-It-Out Game

Both teams rank among the league's best defensively:

• The Knicks allow just 114 points per game (top-10 in defensive rating around 114-116).

• The Spurs boast a top-6 defensive rating, anchored by Victor Wembanyama's rim protection.

When strong defenses meet, scoring often dips. In their NBA Cup Final matchup, the game totaled 237 points despite high stakes. With potential injuries to Spurs guards Devin Vassell (out) and Stephon Castle (questionable), San Antonio's perimeter creation could suffer, forcing more half-court sets against New York's switch-heavy defense featuring OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.

San Antonio's Strong Recent Under Trend

The most compelling trend favors the under: The total has gone under in 6 of the Spurs' last 7 games.

Recent examples include:

• 113-101 loss to Cleveland.

• Lower-scoring outputs in several home games.

The Spurs average around 118-120 points at home while yielding about 113 points. Their games have trended lower lately, especially after high-output wins earlier in the month.

Slow Pace Limits Possessions

Pace is a huge factor in totals, and the Knicks play at one of the slower tempos in the NBA (26th in pace at approximately 98.7 possessions per game). The Spurs aren't a runaway transition team either, relying on Wembanyama's half-court dominance and De'Aaron Fox's controlled attacks. Fewer possessions mean fewer scoring opportunities which is perfect for an under in a projected close game (Spurs favored by 1-2 points). Combined team averages suggest around 240 points in a vacuum, but opponents of these two squads combine to average well under that (around 228 points allowed collectively). Adjust for pace and defensive matchup, and the projection drops below 234.

Head-to-Head History and Motivation for Defense

Their only meeting this season (NBA Cup Final) went over the closing total but this game will be different. Both teams are contenders with identical records, so expect physical, defensive-minded basketball rather than a shootout. The Spurs, coming off two straight losses, will lean on home defense to bounce back, while the Knicks areon a three-game win streak. Injuries could further suppress scoring: If Castle sits, the Spurs lose playmaking; the Knicks have dealt with minor absences but maintain strong defensive identity.

Final Projection: This shapes up as a tight, defensive battle in which both teams will score in the 112-115 range (total around 225-228 points). With the Spurs' dominant recent under trend, slow pace, and elite defenses colliding, the smart play is the under 234. Back the game to stay low-scoring as these contenders prioritize stops over style.

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Pick: Under 234.5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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