Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos (1:05pm)

This game will coast over 50 points! The Bookmakers got this total absolutely wrong!

Offensive Firepower on Both Sides

Both squads have demonstrated consistent scoring ability throughout the 2025 season. The Jaguars rank ninth in the NFL with 26.9 points per game, having tallied 376 total points through 14 games. They've been particularly on fire under quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has thrown for 3,210 yards and 23 touchdowns, adding 302 rushing yards and six scores on the ground for good measure. Running back Travis Etienne complements this with 949 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, while receivers like Jakobi Meyers (707 yards) and Parker Washington (500 yards) provide reliable targets.

The Broncos aren't too shabby themselves, averaging 24.4 points per game (11th in the league) with 342 total points. Rookie sensation Bo Nix has been balling out of control, ranking 10th in passing yards (3,256) and seventh in touchdowns (23), with a 63.5% completion rate and just nine interceptions.He's also added 254 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Courtland Sutton leads the receiving corps with 886 yards and six scores, while RJ Harvey contributes as a dual-threat back with 419 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, and four receiving scores. Denver's quick-passing game, which emphasizes short throws to move the chains, should exploit Jacksonville's pass defense, which allows 222.2 yards per game through the air! When you combine these offenses, the projected scoring aligns with a total in the low 50s. If each team hits around their season average, Jags at 27 and Broncos at 24 this game easily clears 46.5.

Defensive Matchups That Favor Scoring

While both defenses are solid on paper, specific vulnerabilities suggest points will come easier than expected. The Broncos rank second in points allowed at 18.6 per game and excel against the run (90.9 yards allowed), but their linebacker group has shown susceptibility to tight ends and short passes (ranking near the bottom) in yards per game allowed to tight ends. Jacksonville's Brenton Strange could feast here, with experts projecting him over 39.5 receiving yards due to this mismatch.The Jags, meanwhile, lead the league in rush defense (86.3 yards allowed) but give up 222.2 passing yards per contest, setting up Nix and Sutton for success.

Jacksonville allows 20.9 points per game (10th in the NFL), but they've been tested by high-powered offenses recently and still managed to win while allowing scores. Denver's second-ranked scoring defense is impressive, but the Jaguars' recent surge (punishing defenses with balanced attacks) could force the Broncos into a shootout. Both teams have low turnover rates, meaning sustained drives rather than quick stops, which often leads to more points.

Recent Trends Point to the Over

Trends heavily favor the over in this spot. The Jaguars have hit the over in eight of their 14 games this season, particularly when their offense is rolling. They've covered the spread in five straight and are 4-3 as underdogs, often in higher-scoring affairs. Denver has gone over in six of 14 games (42.9%), but that rate jumps at home where they've averaged more points. The Broncos are 8-1 as moneyline favorites, but their games against strong offenses have trended toward overs. With both on win streaks—Broncos undefeated at home since last October—the urgency to score could amplify the pace.

Historical Context and Favorable Conditions

Historically, Jaguars-Broncos games have produced fireworks. In 15 meetings (including playoffs), totals have varied, but standout games include the 1997 playoff upset. These two teams are far more offensively potent than those in the past. Weather won't hinder scoring either. Forecasts call for temperatures around 50-60°F at kickoff, partly cloudy skies, light winds (5-10 mph), and zero chance of precipitation which is ideal for passing games and field goals. This is a battle of ascending offenses with just enough defensive cracks to allow for fireworks. With projected scores around 27-24 or higher, the over 46.5 feels like the sharp side.

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Pick: Over 46.5 (-115)

Best of luck!

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