Indiana vs Rutgers (3:00pm)

The Indiana Hoosiers (12-7, 3-5 Big Ten) head to Jersey Mike's Arena in Piscataway, New Jersey, to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-10, 2-6 Big Ten) in a crucial matchup tipping off at 6:00 PM ET. Indiana enters on a four-game skid, desperate to snap the streak against a Rutgers team that's dropped three of its last four. The betting line has Indiana favored by 7.5 points, but the real intrigue lies in the total set at 147.5. While some handicappers are touting the under due to both teams' moderate tempos, there's strong evidence pointing to a higher-scoring affair. Here's why this game is primed to go over 147.5 points.

Indiana's Explosive Offense Ready to Erupt

Indiana boasts one of the Big Ten's most potent attacks, ranking 39th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 121.5 points per 100 possessions according to KenPom. The Hoosiers average 81.1 points per game, shooting 46.2% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc. They've already notched four games with 100+ points this season, including blowouts against Marquette (100-77) and Milwaukee (101-70). Key to this firepower is the duo of Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries. Wilkerson leads the team with 19 points per game, while DeVries adds volume scoring. Though both have slumped recently, Wilkerson went 1-of-10 from three in the last two games this matchup is a bounce-back spot. Rutgers ranks second-worst in the Big Ten in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to hit at a high clip. Indiana, meanwhile, sports the conference's second-best 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages. Expect the Hoosiers to exploit these mismatches, pushing their output toward 80-85 points.

Defensive Weaknesses on Both Sides Invite Points

Neither defense is lockdown material, setting the stage for mutual scoring. Rutgers sits 127th in adjusted defensive efficiency (108.5), allowing opponents over 1.2 points per possession in seven games this season. They've struggled with rim protection and forcing turnovers, which plays right into Indiana's hands. The Hoosiers' recent offensive dysfunction (e.g., 1.16 PPP against Iowa) could be cured against this leaky unit. On the flip side, Indiana's defense has allowed an average of 15-point margins in their losing streak, showing cracks under pressure. Combined, these flaws suggest a game where both offenses find rhythm, pushing the total north of 147.5.

Pace and Matchup Dynamics Favor More Possessions

Both teams play at below-average tempos. Indiana at 67.3 (197th) and Rutgers at 65.7 (279th) which might scream under at first glance. However, Indiana pushes slightly faster (68.9 possessions per game), and desperation could lead to transition opportunities. Rutgers limits turnovers and grabs offensive boards, extending possessions and creating second-chance points. Foul trouble is another factor: Ogbole is prone to fouls, and both teams shoot well from the line (Indiana 76.5%, Rutgers with solid FT shooters like Francis at 83.6%).

Historical Context and Projections Align with Over

The series is tied 9-9, with Rutgers winning nine of the last 12, but recent games have featured competitive scoring. Even KenPom's 77-70 forecast hits exactly 147, but with Indiana's upside and Rutgers' home boost, expect it to tip over. In summary, Indiana's elite offense meeting Rutgers' porous defense, combined with the Knights' home scoring potential and matchup-specific vulnerabilities, makes this a prime spot for the over. Look for a final score around 82-72, totaling 154 points.

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Pick: Over 147.5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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