Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder (4:40pm)

​Why the Houston Rockets Will Cover Against the Thunder Tonight

Tonight, the Houston Rockets face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA season opener at Paycom Center (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock), and they’re poised to pull off an upset as +240 underdogs. Despite OKC’s championship pedigree and ​6.5-point favorite status, Houston’s revamped roster, OKC’s injury crisis, and the emotional weight of banner night tilt this game in the Rockets’ favor. Here’s why Houston starts the season ​with an easy cover! ​

1. Kevin Durant’s Arrival Makes Houston Lethal

​The Rockets’ blockbuster acquisition of Kevin Durant is a game-changer! KD, a consistent 27+ PPG scorer, slots perfectly into Houston’s lineup alongside Alperen Sengun (19.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG) and Jabari Smith Jr., creating a dynamic frontcourt that OKC’s thin roster can’t match. Durant’s mid-range precision and off-ball movement will expose Chet Holmgren’s defensive gaps, while Şengün’s paint prowess (4.9 blocks per 10 games late last season) locks down the interior. Houston’s NBA-best rebounding (48.5 per game) and elite defense (allowing just 12.3 threes per game) will smother OKC’s perimeter attack, which gave up 13.5 threes last year.

2. Thunder’s Injury Woes ​Give Rockets An Edge

OKC’s title defense is on thin ice with a brutal injury report: Jalen Williams (wrist, OUT), Nikola Topic, Kenrich Williams, Thomas Sorber, and potentially Isaiah Joe and Ajay Mitchell (both questionable) are sidelined. That’s up to six rotation players missing, gutting their bench and wing defense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last year’s MVP, will shoulder a massive load, but without Williams’ 21.6 PPG and secondary playmaking, OKC’s offense could stall against Houston’s sixth-ranked defense (109.8 points allowed). The Rockets, despite questions around Fred VanVleet and Jae’Sean Tate, have a healthier core (Durant, Sengun, Thompson), giving them the edge in depth and physicality.

3. Banner Night Distraction Plays Into Houston’s Hands

Raising a championship banner is a moment of pride, but it’s also a recipe for distraction. OKC’s “ring night” could lead to an emotional, sloppy start, a trend seen in past NBA openers. The Thunder went 35-17-1 ATS as heavy favorites last season, but that was with a full roster; tonight’s absences shift the dynamic. Meanwhile, Houston, stinging from a first-round playoff sweep to Golden State last year (103-89 in Game 7), is hungry and thrives as road underdogs (12-9-1 ATS).

The Deciding Factor: Rebounding and Pace​

Houston’s rebounding dominance (third-best in rebounds allowed) and ability to limit second-chance points will frustrate OKC’s youthful lineup. ​Seng​un vs. Holmgren is a marquee matchup, but Houston’s physicality gives them the edge in a gritty, high-scoring game (over 227.5 total points). The Rockets’ hunger and depth outweighs OKC’s emotional high and injury-riddled roster.

Final Prediction: ​118 ​Thunder 114 ​Rockets

Houston covers +​6.5, led by Durant’s 28-point debut and ​Seng​uns’s double-double. ​The Thunder may win this game but look for the Rockets to keep this game close throughout with the potential of them winning this one outright.