In the annals of NBA history, opting for the Under in games with totals of 235 or more points has consistently proven to be a highly lucrative strategy. Bookmakers are levying a tax on sports bettors participating in these elevated totals. I've pinpointed an opportune situation for an Under bet. According to Sportsinsights, over 90% of both the tickets and money are leaning towards the Over in the Pistons/Sixers game tonight.
Despite Philadelphia consistently surpassing the point total in 9 of their last 10 games, I believe this is the right moment to deviate from this trend, considering the probable adjustments made by bookmakers. The Pistons are currently grappling with a significant challenge, having recently endured their franchise-record-tying 21st consecutive loss against the Sixers on Wednesday. Detroit ranks near the bottom in various statistical categories this season, including points per game (28th at just over 108), field goal percentage (22nd), and 3-point field goal percentage (26th). The Pistons also occupy the 28th position in 3-point field goals per game.
I sense that Detroit will play with a chip on their shoulder tonight, with the thoughts of this embarrassing losing streak fresh in their minds. I anticipate an enhanced defensive effort, casting doubt on the likelihood of them conceding 39 points to the Sixers in the first quarter this time around. Additionally, considering that 54% of Pistons games have trended Under this season when they serve as a road underdog, the likelihood of them surrendering 39 points to the Sixers in the first quarter is further diminished. This complements the Sixers' tendency to showcase stronger defense at home, allowing 110.8 points per game compared to 117.4 points on the road.
Furthermore, historical data from last season supports the potential for an Under bet, with 21 of the Sixers' 36 home games last season going Under when they were listed as the home favorites by oddsmakers. The Under has also prevailed in 7 out of the Pistons' last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. In my analysis, I have this total handicapped at 230 points combined, providing close to 5 points in value. Therefore, I recommend taking the Under.
Pick: Under 235.5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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