NC State vs Clemson (4:00pm)

While Clemson enters on a nine-game win streak and boasts an undefeated conference record, there are compelling reasons to believe NC State will keep this game close enough to cover the spread. Here's a breakdown of why the Wolfpack are poised to stay within striking distance or even pull off the upset.

NC State's Explosive Offense Matches Up Well Against Clemson

The Wolfpack rank among the top offenses in the nation, averaging 85.8 points per game (32nd nationally) with efficient shooting splits of 47.8% from the field and 39.8% from beyond the arc. This firepower was on full display in their recent 113-69 dismantling of Florida State, where they shot lights out and dominated the glass. Key contributors like sophomore forward Darrion Williams (14.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 43.5% FG) and guard Quadir Copeland (13.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) provide a balanced attack that can exploit mismatches. Williams, in particular, has been a revelation, shooting 40.7% from three and adding defensive versatility with 1.1 steals per game. Clemson, while elite defensively (allowing just 64.5 PPG, 13th nationally), has shown cracks against high-scoring teams. The Tigers rank 176th in scoring offense at 77.2 PPG, relying on a slower pace (68.5 possessions per game) to grind out wins. If NC State pushes the tempo as they did in their 44-point blowout win they could force Clemson into a shootout. The Wolfpack's 120.7 offensive rating (34th nationally) suggests they can generate enough points to hang around, especially if they hit their season average of 11.1 threes per game.

Bounce-Back Potential After a Wake-Up Call Loss

NC State's recent 78-74 home loss to Georgia Tech was ugly marked by poor shooting (37% FG, 36% 3P) and defensive lapses. But this could serve as motivation for a team that's 5-0 in Quad 2 games and has shown resilience. Prior to that setback, the Wolfpack were on a roll, including road wins at Boston College (79-71) and Florida State. Coach Will Wade's squad has a 100.7 defensive rating (82nd nationally), which is solid enough to contain Clemson's key scorers like RJ Godfrey (12.0 PPG, 64.9% FG) and Jestin Porter (11.3 PPG). Contrast this with Clemson's hot streak: nine straight wins, including a 69-59 victory over Miami and a 74-50 rout of Boston College. However, the Tigers' schedule has been relatively soft lately, with wins over sub-.500 ACC foes. Facing a desperate NC State team ranked 31st in NET (7th in ACC) could test their mettle. The Wolfpack's +20.57 SRS (26th nationally) indicates they're battle-tested, and their 9-9 ATS record shows they often perform as expected in close lines.

Historical Context and Key Matchups Favor a Tight Contest

While Clemson has dominated the recent series, winning eight of the last nine meetings including a 68-58 road win over NC State on Feb. 1, history shows these games are often competitive. NC State leads the all-time series 106-61, and their lone win in that stretch was a narrow 78-77 thriller at Clemson in 2024. Expect a regression to the mean, as the Wolfpack are due for a strong showing against their ACC rival. Matchup-wise, NC State's rebounding (36.4 RPG, 202nd) could challenge Clemson's edge (36.7 RPG). Betting trends support this: Clemson's 11-7-1 ATS record is strong, but they've covered by slim margins in recent games, like their four-point win over SMU.

Final Thoughts: NC State Covers +3.5! This game has all the makings of a classic ACC nail-biter. Clemson's defense and home-court advantage (10-0 at Littlejohn this season) make them favorites, but NC State's offensive efficiency and motivation post-loss should keep it within a bucket. Look for the Wolfpack to cover +3.5 in a 74-72 type of affair.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: NC State +3.5 (-115)

🍀Best of luck!

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