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Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills (1:25pm)

Updated: Mar 7

The Bills finally came through in a close game last week against the Chiefs but are still in must-win mode to keep pace with the Colts and Bengals. Dallas finally proved it could beat a good team last week by toppling the Eagles at home, which makes this a natural letdown spot for a historically erratic team.The drama surrounding the bye week served to unite Buffalo's locker room and unleashed the team with a revitalized offensive game plan. I am confident that the additional rest and extra motivation at this crucial juncture of the season will give them the upper hand against the Cowboys, securing a win for us.

Dallas is much less dominant on the road. The Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards.  However, they will be missing its best run-stopper, nose tackle Johnathan Hankins. He hurt his ankle in the win over Philly as the Cowboys gave up 4.6 yards per carry. James Cook has received double-digit carries in four straight and should excel here. The Cowboys play a ton of man coverage and that also sets up well for Josh Allen's passing and scrambling.

Unfavorable weather conditions are anticipated in Buffalo, and this works to the advantage of the home team, particularly against a road team accustomed to playing in a dome. I believe that, with the trio of Cook, Allen, Latavius Murray, the Bills should find success in running the ball against Dallas. Defensively, Buffalo is poised to impede an offense that has primarily played at home in four of its last five games against sub-part teams. Excluding a mediocre performance against Carolina, Dallas managed only 23 points at the Eagles, 20 at the Chargers, and 10 at the 49ers. While Dallas excels in home games, their away performances have been less than spectacular.

This matchup holds significant importance for Buffalo's standing in the AFC. Even if Dallas experiences a loss, it may not have a crippling impact on their overall standing. The public's opinions on this game are divided, and the oddsmakers have carefully set the spread to reflect this. However, it's worth pondering why oddsmakers would favor a 7-6 team over a 10-3 team. It appears evident that bookmakers are enticing casual sports bettors to favor Dallas, creating what I refer to as a trap-line—an occurrence I've observed on multiple occasions. Ultimately, the outcome of this game hinges on which team desires the victory more. I firmly believe that Buffalo will be the more determined and hungry team today.

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Pick: Buffalo Bills ML (-130)

🍀Best of luck!



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