Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars (10:00am)

The public is expecting fireworks, but this game will be a slugfest!

The AFC Wild Card matchup between the Buffalo Bills (12-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) kicks off at 10:00am at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. With the Jaguars listed as 1.5-point favorites and the over/under set at 51.5, this game has the makings of a high-scoring affair on paper two potent offenses led by star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence. However, a deeper dive into the teams' defensive strengths, recent trends, injury concerns, and historical context suggests the total will land under 51.5. Here's a breakdown of the key factors pointing to a lower-scoring contest.

Elite Defenses Set to Dominate

Both teams boast top-tier defenses that have been stingy all season, particularly against the pass and in limiting points. The Bills finished the 2025 regular season allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL at just 156.9, a testament to their secondary's ability to shut down aerial attacks. This is especially problematic for the Jaguars, who rely heavily on Lawrence's arm to win them games. Jacksonville ranked sixth in scoring offense at 27.9 points per game but could struggle against Buffalo's pass rush and coverage.

On the flip side, the Jaguars' defense ranked eighth in the league, surrendering only 19.8 points per game. They've been particularly effective at home, holding opponents to 15.0 points per game in Jacksonville. The Jags' front seven, led by edge rushers like Josh Hines-Allen, has generated consistent pressure, which could force Josh Allen into mistakes on the road. Buffalo's offense, while explosive at 28.3 points per game (fourth in the NFL), has shown vulnerability against strong defenses, and playoff intensity often amplifies defensive play. In a playoff environment where every possession counts, expect both teams to play conservatively, leading to field goals over touchdowns.

Injury Concerns Could Hamper Offensive Firepower

Injuries on both sides, particularly to key offensive linemen and skill players, add another layer to the under case. For the Jaguars, starting left tackle Cole Van Lanen is inactive due to a knee injury sustained in the regular-season finale. He'll be replaced by Walker Little, who started the first 12 games but may need time to shake off rust. This weakens protection for Lawrence against Buffalo's formidable pass rush, potentially leading to hurried throws, sacks, and stalled drives.The Bills aren't without issues either. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury, limiting Allen's options in the passing game. Buffalo's injury report lists 16 players total, which could disrupt rhythm on the road. Playoff games often see teams lean on their run games to control the clock, and with these ailments, neither offense is likely to explode for 30+ points.

Weather, History, and Playoff Trends Favor the Under

The forecast for game day calls for mild conditions: temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s, mostly cloudy skies, and northwest winds at 11-13 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. While not extreme, the wind could affect deep passes and field goals, subtly favoring defenses. Morning showers are expected to clear well before kickoff, with precipitation chances dropping to near zero during the game.

Historically, Bills-Jaguars matchups have averaged around 42 points per game across 20 meetings (including playoffs), with the series tied 10-10. Playoff games between these teams have been low-scoring affairs, like the 2017 Wild Card where Jacksonville won 10-3. NFL Wild Card games often trend under due to heightened stakes, with teams prioritizing ball control and minimizing turnovers. Both squads rank in the top 12 for scoring defense, and their combined regular-season points allowed suggest a final score in the 20s for each side.

Final Thoughts: Look for a defensive battle where points come at a premium. The Bills' road woes in playoffs (their first away postseason game since 2020) and the Jaguars' home dominance could lead to a clock-chewing style of play. Models and experts predict scores like Jaguars 28-20 or 23-20, both comfortably under 51.5. Bet the under with confidence this one's shaping up as a classic playoff slugfest rather than a shootout.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 51.5 (-110) 🍀Best of luck!

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