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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat (4:30pm)

Updated: Mar 7

“I just want guys to get back and we all hoop together. That’s all I’m going to say because I don’t want to jinx anything.”- Jimmy Butler Jimmy Buter was interviewed after hitting the buzzer beater over the Chicago Bull on Saturday. 

Today, Butler's wish comes true as Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are set to join the starting lineup for our game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Miami defense has encountered challenges due to injuries, allowing a 38.2% success rate on 3-point attempts (357 of 935) and a 76.1% conversion rate from the free throw line. Defensively, the Heat secure the 10th spot in the NBA for points allowed per game, with an average of 112.0. Despite forcing an impressive 14.9 turnovers per game, opposing teams have been shooting at a 48.5% accuracy from the field, placing the Heat 21st in the league. The lineup for Miami tonight is the healthiest it has been in months, and I anticipate that this will reflect in their team's performance!

With a record of 19-5, Minnesota boasts the NBA's best defense; however, their defensive prowess diminishes on the road, where they rank 11th in efficiency. Notably, four of the Timberwolves' five losses have occurred away from Target Center. Anthony Edwards, whose participation remains uncertain (questionable), has made a comeback in the last two games, adding significant value to the Timberwolves, who currently hold the 17th spot in offensive rating. The team encounters challenges with a turnover percentage that ranks 23rd, and they also operate as a below-average offensive-rebounding unit.

SportsInsights reports that over 75% of the tickets and money favor the Timberwolves, creating a substantial liability for the sportsbooks. Despite this, I view this game as an excellent opportunity to go against the grain as I predict the Heat winning by 2 points. While Miami holds a 15-11 record this season, their positive win differential of +2.1 indicates that teams with their point differential would have won 2.1 fewer games at this point in the season, according to Cleaning the Glass. Nevertheless, the Heat consistently outperform expectations. Take the points!

Pick: Miami Heat +2 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!



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