Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs (11:20am)

The total for this afternoon matchup currently sits at 7 runs, but I think it's still too low even with the wind factors that everyone seems to always point out. Taillon is the biggest reason the total goes over 7 today! The Cubs right-hander enters with a 4.97 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 50.2 innings. He’s already allowed 16 home runs this season (2.8 HR/9) and just got shelled for 8 runs on 8 hits in his last start against the White Sox. He's struggled with hard contact and the long ball all year. Houston’s offense is built for damage against pitchers like Taillon.

Despite the Astros’ disappointing 20-31 record, their lineup still features elite run-producers. Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, and Jeremy Pena projected for 1.8+ total bases each in this spot. These guys mash right-handed pitching and have the power to turn one mistake into multiple runs. Add in the fact that Houston’s games have consistently trended high-scoring lately (the over is 5-2 in Astros contests coming off an off-day), and you have an offense capable of putting up a crooked number early.

The Astros sports the worst team ERA in baseball at 5.34 and a bullpen that’s even worse at 5.72 ERA. If Arrighetti (who, despite his shiny 1.50 ERA in just 36 innings, has walked 21 batters) is out of the game, the Astros pen has been a revolving door that allows extra runners to score. Houston’s bullpen is among the league’s worst. Chicago’s offense is due for a breakout at home.

The Cubs are on a 5-game losing streak and have been held to just 5 runs over their last 3 games. That kind of offensive drought rarely lasts, especially at Wrigley Field where they’re a strong 18-8 this season. With Alex Bregman (facing his former team) in the middle of the order, plus Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong all projected by models for 1.4+ total bases, the Cubs are primed to explode against a Houston pitching staff that ranks dead-last in efficiency. Even the park and weather can’t fully suppress this matchup.

While the wind is blowing in at roughly 15 mph, Wrigley still plays to the hitters’ advantage once balls get into the gaps or the bullpens get involved. I have accounted for these environmental factors and still lands on nearly 9 total runs. Take the Over!

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Over 7 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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