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Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors (4:30pm)


The Grizzlies and Raptors are set to face off tonight, and I anticipate a high-scoring game. The initial total opened at 227.5 and has been decreasing throughout the day. This shift seems attributed to an influx of recreational money favoring the Under. SportsInsights data supports this, indicating that over 70% of the tickets and over 88% of the money are on the Under. I have this game handicapped at the 228-231 point range so we are getting some value here.


Despite the Grizzlies heavily relying on their defense, its impact may not be evident on Monday due to vulnerabilities in their perimeter defense. Memphis is currently conceding an average of 113.6 points per game this season, placing them 13th in the NBA. Their opponents have found success, shooting at a rate of 46.9% from the field and over 38.5% from behind the arc. Toronto stands poised for success, featuring sharpshooters RJ Barrett (39% shooting accuracy), Immanuel Quickley (shooting over 45% since their trade from the Knicks), and Gary Trent Jr. (41.5%) from beyond the arc. Additionally, the potential absence of Tillman could further impede Memphis' top-ranked rim defense.


On the other side, Toronto's defense has not shown significant improvement recently, evident in a recent lapse that resulted in conceding 126 points to New York on Saturday. They struggle in defending both the rim (ranked 23rd) and the three-point line (ranked 24th). The departure of Pascal Siakam through a trade compounds their defensive challenges. Notably, the Over has been successful in 8 out of the Raptors' last 11 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in the previous game.


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Pick: Over 225.5 (-110)


🍀Best of luck!

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