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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat (4:30pm)


After a challenging road trip last week, the Heat are set to play on their home turf without Jimmy Butler, who has been absent in three of their last four games. Despite Butler's absence, the team has seen notable contributions from other players such as Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Kevin Love and Josh Richardson have emerged as key performers off the bench in recent games, alleviating concerns about the team's offensive capabilities.


In their previous matchup, the Houston Rockets surprised bettors with a victory over Milwaukee, overcoming the odds as 7-point underdogs. With all starters consistently scoring in double figures, the Rockets have demonstrated strong performance throughout the season. They boast an average of 112.5 points per game, shooting at 46.4% overall and 37% from beyond the arc. While Houston's defense has been instrumental in their success, it's noteworthy that their defensive ranking drops significantly when playing on the road, going from 5th in the NBA to 20th.


Despite market favoritism towards the Heat and expectations of a low-scoring game, there's a notable influx of sharp action on the Over. The initial total of 217.5 has seen upward movement, reaching 219 or higher. This apparent contradiction prompts the question of why the total is rising despite the majority of bets leaning towards the Under. This situation exemplifies reverse line movement, suggesting a potential scoring outcome contrary to popular belief.


Historically, the Over has been favorable in the Heat's home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, with a 14-6 record in the last 20 instances. Based on calculations, this game is anticipated to conclude in the range of 221-224 points. Considering these factors, the recommendation is to take the Over in this matchup.


Pick: Over 219 (-110)


🍀Best of luck!

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