Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox (4:10pm)
The Red Sox are currently on a five-game winning streak but that could come to an end tonight. Houston is seeking revenge after losing to Boston 5-1 last Thursday. Although Martin Perez dominated the Astros in their last game, shutting them out in 7.2 innings of work, he has not been consistent this season, allowing an average of 4.4 runs in an average of 4.33 innings pitched with a 1.96 WHIP.
I predict that Perez will regress while his counterpart Framber Valdez will perform well. Valdez will be making his third start since returning from the IL, and I expect him to have a quality start after allowing just one run in 7 innings against the Red Sox. Houston is ranked 3rd in the league in wOBA against left-handed pitchers, while Boston is ranked just 15th. Backing the short favorite on the road seems to have value tonight, and I have the Astros as a -130 favorite. My models and system predict that the Astros will win by 1-2 runs. Prediction: 5 Astros 3 Red Sox