Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys (5:15pm)
After securing an emotional victory against the Vikings, earning their first division title in three decades, the Lions might be perceived as susceptible to a potential letdown, especially in a crucial primetime matchup with playoff implications. However, I am confident that the Lions will maintain their focus against the Cowboys. Despite Dallas's recent struggles, highlighted by a substantial ground game setback against the Dolphins, the Lions, guided by Gibbs and Montgomery in the backfield, are poised to execute a well-crafted game plan.
While Dallas thrives at home, their defense appears overrated, ranking 18th in the NFL against the run and lacking consistency against quality opponents. Facing the league's top defense against running backs, Tony Pollard's modest average of 59 yards per game may further hinder the Cowboys. The Lions boast impressive rankings, standing 7th overall in DVOA, 5th in DVOA offense, and 14th in DVOA defense. Anticipating a closely contested match, Detroit is likely to keep the game within a field goal or potentially secure a straight-up victory.
Despite a public shift towards the Over, with the total rising from 51 to 53.5, my inclination diverges from the majority. I envision both teams heavily relying on the running game, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair. Despite the prevailing sentiment favoring the Over, history shows that primetime games this season have leaned towards the Under at 59%. Therefore, my choice is the Lions and the Under.
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Pick: Under 53.5 (-115)
Detroit Lions +5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!