Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets (4:00pm)
Despite having a 15-11 Over/Under record for the season, the Hornets have regressed, scoring fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games and holding a 1-4 Over/Under record in their last five matchups. Charlotte are simply not the same team without LaMelo Ball at the controls. The absence of Ball and Williams also leaves a void in the team's interior, potentially hindering easy putbacks. Charlotte have lost to the Heat, Pelicans, 76ers, Raptors and Pacers during this streak. LaMelo Ball is averaging 24.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game this season. The Under is 36-17-3 in Hornets last 56 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
The Denver Nuggets are hitting their stride once again, They are 20-10 heading into tonight's matchup against the Hornets. Denver, having played a fast-paced game in Brooklyn, makes me believe they will some tired legs. The team has trended towards the Under, with four out of its last five games falling below the total, contributing to an 11-18-1 Over/Under record for the season. Notably, the Nuggets rank 28th in pace so look for them to control the tempo of the game. The Under is 14-5 in Nuggets last 19 games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Although the market strongly favors the Over, the total has consistently decreased throughout the day. This may indicate a reverse line movement, suggesting that knowledgeable bettors (sharps) are placing their bets on the Under. All indicators point towards a lower-scoring game in this matchup, and my analysis suggests a projected range of 220-223 points. Therefore, consider taking the Under in this instance.
Pick: Under 225 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!