One of my most profitable systems has been betting the Under when the starting pitcher is making his first career start at home. Tonight we have Dereck Rodriguez looking to bounce back after allowing four runs - one earned to the Rockies earlier this week. I watched some games of him pitching for Triple-A Sacramento and he looked solid. The Phillies have as much information on the guy as the public and I believe that will play in favor of San Francisco. Jake Arrieta has always been a solid pitcher as he recently closed out another dominant month by destroying the Dodgers 6-1 on Tuesday. He's 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA in seven career starts against San Francisco. I personally had this game handicapped at 6 runs and thought they books should of opened the total at 7.5. I haven't seen too much line movement on this total so that tells me the books are happy with the action they are getting on both ends. I'm still seeing over 54% of the public on the Over so this would be a small fade of the public. Under is 18-7-2 in Phillies last 27 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
Best of luck!