Texas is playing better than what their record is advertising and I think the public is making a huge mistake betting on Michigan tonight. I'm seeing more than 59% of the public betting on Michigan this evening and I think it's because of their very impressive OT win against UCLA last week. A weakness I feel Michigan has is that they become too reliant on the three point shot and that won't go well against Texas because that's one of the Longhorn strengths. Texas is only giving up 28.2% from behind the arc. this season. Michigan has always been a tough team to bet on to make a profit and it's due to the public always betting them! They are only 5-5 against the spread this season so if you are betting them you are still paying money on of your pocket on juice. Wolverines are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Wolverines are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
The Longhorns has also played some good competition this year and had only some minor setbacks with overtime losses to Duke and Gonzaga. I feel like the public is undervaluing the Longhorns in this matchup and it's truly going to be a missed opportunity. Texas has now had over a week to come up with a gameplan for the Wolverines and I think Shaka Smart will showcase some great defense schemes that will force Michigan to commit more turnovers than they normally would. Shaka Smart and the Longhorns are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games against the Big Ten.
Pick: Texas Longhorns -4.5 (B+1)
Best of luck