St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (4:10pm)

Pick: Over 9.5 (-115)

Analysis: The line movement on this game was very weird but I'm seeing some exposure on the over right now. My models and systems have this handicapped at 11 runs so 9.5 is more than fair. I would have personally set the total at 10 runs. I predict a big letdown by both Wainwright and Andleman this evening! Look for runs early and often.

• Over is 20-7-2 in Reds last 29 vs. National League Central.