Today, we have Anibel Sanchez on the mound for the Detroit Tigers and Juan Nicasio pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both pitchers are pitching solid to start this MLB season. Although many can argue that Sanchez has regressed some I'm predicting he bounces back strong this year. Sanchez struggled heavily pitching on the road last year but he did have modest success at home. He went 7-4 with a 4.86 ERA last year pitching at Comerica Park.
Juan Nicasio has always been a hard pitcher for me to sports handicap personally. When he pitched for the Colorado Rockies he was always a very inconsistent to bet upon. He lacked consistency and became very hard to decipher though out the season. I never knew what type of game I would get with Nicasio. Nicasio was the type of pitcher where you can win a game by 2 or lose by 10+ runs!
I find value betting on the Tigers today and when I factored in some motivational and public consensus analysis it has me absolutely convinced that the Tigers will win today. First, I scoured all over the forums at Covers.com to get a sense on who the public liked today. I was shocked to find the public and some well respected handicappers were on the Pittsburgh Pirates today.
Next, I checked out the line movement with SportsInsights.com to see where I thought the public was actually betting with their money. The Tigers last night opened up as a (-135) favorite but I'm finding them as cheap as a (-113) favorite. This should indicate to you which side the public is actually betting on. Rarely do I find oddsmakers cutting any of us any slack as giving us better odds.
Lastly, I factored in who I thought would be the more motivated team to show up today. I have the Tigers sneaking away with this advantage for today's game. The reason I feel the Tigers will be the more motivated team comes down the last few games they played. In last year's MLB playoffs the Pirates swept the Tigers four games to none. You have to believe the Tigers are still embarrassed and pissed off about last year's performance in the playoffs.
Tigers 5 Pirates 3